對固體生物質產生的電力的支持是對生物質發(fā)電廠市場發(fā)展的最重要的刺激。 盡管生物質補貼計劃最近在歐洲也經歷了積極的修正,但亞洲國家目前正在首次減少這種支持。這是德國咨詢公司ecoprog GmbH進行的一項新市場研究的結果之一。
The support for electricity generated from solid biomass is the most important stimulation for the development of the biomass power plant market. Whereas biomass subsidisation schemes have recently also experienced positive amendments in Europe, Asian countries are currently reducing this kind of support for the first time. This is one of the results of a new market study from Germany-based consultancy ecoprog GmbH.
根據ecoprog研究“生物質能發(fā)電2018/2019”,2018年投入使用的生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs)數(shù)量增加了約300個。如今,全球約有3800個生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs),裝機容量約為60 GW。
According to the ecoprog study “Biomass to Power 2018/2019“, the number of biomass power plants (BMPPs) commissioned in 2018 increased by about 300 facilities. Today, there are about 3 800 BMPPs worldwide with an installed power capacity of around 60 GW.
補貼驅動 Subsidy-driven
可再生能源補貼(RE)是推動生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs)市場的最重要因素,尤其是在歐洲。南美洲、北美洲以及許多亞洲國家的市場受到燃料供應的刺激; 然而,可再生能源補貼也是這些國家新產能發(fā)展的重要因素。
Subsidies for renewable energies (RE) are the most important factor driving the BMPP market, especially in Europe. The markets in South and North America as well as in many Asian countries are rather stimulated by fuel availability; however, RE subsidies are an important factor for the development of new capacities in these countries as well.
一些歐洲生物質支持計劃已有20多年的歷史。 因此,在過去幾年中,許多此類系統(tǒng)已經減少并且更傾向于競爭機制。 去年,這種趨勢在一定程度上放緩。
Some of the European biomass support schemes are more than 20 years old. Therefore, many such systems have been reduced and rather geared towards competitive mechanisms in the past years. In the last year, this trend slowed down to some extent.
走向市場拍賣 Move toward market auctions
例如,在等待多年引入之后,波蘭于2018年首次組織了生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs)拍賣。然而,這些拍賣的成功非常有限 - 只有一個項目被批準用于補貼。 這是因為只有少數(shù)項目開發(fā)商參與其中,其中一個原因是許多投資者持觀望態(tài)度。
Poland, for instance, organised BMPP auctions for the first time in 2018, after the introduction had been awaited for many years. However, these auctions showed very limited success – only one project was approved for subsidies. This is because only a few project developers participated, one reason for which is a wait-and-see attitude by many investors.
2018年末,芬蘭還推出了一種可以有利于生物質發(fā)電的拍賣系統(tǒng)。愛爾蘭通過了一項拍賣計劃,該計劃應該增加包括生物質在內的可再生能源的建立,直到2025年。
In late 2018, Finland also introduced an auctioning system that could benefit electricity generation from biomass. Ireland passed an auctioning scheme, which should increase the establishment of renewable energies, including biomass, until 2025.
在歐洲之外,削減生物質補貼的國家數(shù)量在2018年首次增加。例如,泰國大幅降低了生物質電力的上網電價(FIT),從大約14.20歐元/千瓦時降至6.30歐元/噸千瓦時。
Outside of Europe, the number of countries cutting biomass subsidies increased for the first time in 2018. Thailand, for instance, drastically reduced the feed-in tariff (FIT) for biomass electricity, from about 14.20 €ct/kWh to 6.30 €ct/kWh.
泰國一座9.9MW的生物質發(fā)電廠。 該工廠使用稻殼和木片,最初于2004年作為熱電聯(lián)產工廠投入使用,為碾米廠提供蒸汽并為電網供電。
A 9.9 MW biomass power plant in Thailand. Using rice husk and woodchips, the plant was originally commissioned as a co-generation plant in 2004 supplying steam to a rice mill and power to the grid.
此外,日本還降低了對生物質能發(fā)電項目的補貼,這些項目的容量超過10MWe,并為其他建筑物提供了每年200兆瓦的上限。 阿根廷將年度拍賣中RE的招標量從2017年的1.2 GWe降至2018年的400 MWe。
Also, Japan lowered the subsidisation for biomass power projects with capacities of over 10 MWe and introduced a cap of 200 MWe per year for additional constructions. Argentina reduced the tendering volume for RE in the annual auctions from 1.2 GWe in 2017 to 400 MWe in 2018.
亞洲將帶動增長 Asia to lead growth
中國和印度這些增長潛力最強的國家仍然存在有吸引力的補貼條款。2018年,印度另外引入了全國范圍的支持計劃,用于基于工廠建設補助的生物質熱電聯(lián)產(CHP)工廠。
Attractive subsidisation terms remain in place in China and India, the countries with the strongest growth potentials. In 2018, India additionally introduced a nationwide support scheme for building biomass combined heat and power (CHP) plants based on grants for plant construction.
從全球的角度來看,生物質電力補貼繼續(xù)促進生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs)建設的市場發(fā)展。到2027年,全球生物質發(fā)電廠(BMPPs)市場將繼續(xù)保持其動態(tài)發(fā)展道路。Ecoprog預計在此期間將建造約1900個額外的生物質發(fā)電廠,裝機容量約為25GW 。
From a global perspective, biomass electricity subsidisation continues to promote market development for the construction of BMPPs. Until 2027, the worldwide market for BMPPs will thus remain on its dynamic development path. Ecoprog expects the construction of about 1 900 additional biomass power plants with an installed power capacity of around 25 GW over the period.
預計這一增長中約有50%將在亞洲實現(xiàn),特別是在中國和印度這兩個主要市場。
about 50 percent of this growth is anticipated to be realised in Asia, especially in the two lead markets China and India.
此外,北美和南美仍將是固體生物質發(fā)電的有吸引力的市場,特別是其主要市場巴西,加拿大和美國。 在歐洲,總體支持水平將繼續(xù)下降,以降低高成本和改善生態(tài)方面。
Also, North and South America will remain attractive markets for electricity generation from solid biomass, and particularly their lead markets Brazil, Canada and the United States (US). In Europe, the overall level of support will continue to decline, in order to reduce high costs and improve ecological aspects.
2018年觀察到的補貼計劃的積極變化將無法完全彌補這一發(fā)展。總而言之ecoprog估計,歐洲市場將因此失去一些驅動。
The positive changes of the subsidisation schemes, which were observed in 2018, will not be able to completely compensate for this development. In sum, the European market will, therefore, lose some of its drive ecoprog concludes.